ES Spain - Scenario Results and Monitoring Approaches
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Energy Saving Potential of the Housing Stock of the Comunitat Valenciana
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Last updated: 30.05.2016
Scope
Scale | No. of dwellings | No. of buildings | No. of inhabitants | m² reference area |
---|---|---|---|---|
Regional | 692,641 | 47,984 | 1,385,285 | 88.25 (conditioned useful floor area; average value per dwelling) |
Description of the action
The specific objective of the pilot action is to analyze the potential for energy savings and emissions reductions that encloses the residential building stock in the Comunidad Valenciana.
Considering the construction features and state of conservation, this pilot action is focused on multi-family residential buildings, designed mainly to primary residences, built between 1940 and 1980 which represent the greatest potential for energy savings due the lack of technical standards in the energy efficiency field in the construction period and the low investment in conservation and maintenance carried out during their service life. Indeed, the buildings built in this period represent about 50 % of the housing stock.
The strategic objective in the long run is on the one hand to define a program to promote energy retrofit over the regional housing stock and on the other hand to propose a realistic and acceptable goal by the energy sector for a profound renewal of the housing stock.
Methodology
The main task to be developed will be:
- Knowledge of the actual energy consumption.
- Energy audits by typology of housing to contrast the theoretical analysis with actual data.
- Proposal for packages of energy efficiency improvements from baseline levels to NZEB.
- Evaluation of costs for each improvement package to identify the effective cost.
- Estimation of savings in energy consumption, CO2 emissions and in cost.
Description of the Basic Case and the Most Relevant Scenarios
First, which segment of building stock to apply the scenarios was selected. As anticipated above, multi-family buildings built during the 1940-1980 period were decided as the ones with the highest saving potential (which are approximately half of the buildings built during this period). Then, three improvement measures were selected in order to be applied to all the proposed scenarios: improving the façades, windows, rooftops and/or a combination of them. These measures were chosen over others, like renovate the heating system, as they last longer and require much less maintenance. In economic terms, an analysis supposing an investment grant of 50 % of the final cost of the different scenarios was made.
Between the years 2012 and 2021, six possible scenarios were calculated, the first of them, renewing the 10 % of the existing building stock during that 10 year span, the second, 20 %, 30 %, 40 %, 50 % and 80 % for the rest.
The three most relevant scenarios are the 30, 40 and 50 %, this happens because they are all reducing considerably the energy consumption, and are feasible in manpower terms. Scenario 6, with 80 % of the building stock improved, is far too away from the current rates, and both scenarios 1 and 2, are far away the reduction targets.
Results
For achieving a significant reduction in final energy consumption for the year 2021, during the period 2012-2021, greater than 20 % energy saving, 80 % or more of the building stock should be renewed during these 10 years (Scenario 6), this would be more than 55,000 building renewals per year, which is a far great rate of current renewal and quite difficult to accomplish. The investment for this scenario is 1,406 million €. A more plausible scenario is number 4, which includes the renewal of 40 % of the considered building stock, with a renewal rate of 27,000 buildings per year and energy savings of about 10 %. This would cost around 703 million €. Scenario 1 would suppose the intervention on only 10 % of the existing stock, with an annual rate in compliance with those suggested in the last Housing plan, of 6,925 yearly renewals. On the other hand, this scenario would only reduce energy consumption in 2 %, which is quite an irrelevant quantity. So, with this rate, we can conclude that of national target of inspecting all the buildings 50 or more years old by the end of 2018 will not be accomplished.
These improvements are directed towards the fulfilment of the CTE (Código Técnico de la Edificación, Spanish legislation for buildings), in which the new U-values after renewals on façades, windows and/or rooftops have to achieve established standards. This renewal is mainly focused on the façades as it’s the most efficient element in energy reduction standards.
Another option that may achieve similar savings whilst intervening in a lower percentage of the building stock would be to propose stricter improvements than those required by the CTE and closer to the NZEB approach, prioritizing renewals that improve insulation at the building envelope. Once this renewal is managed, we could propose the improvement of systems, adding renewable energy sources, although this would obviously increase the invested quantity.
It also has to be noted that we’ve considered real energy consumption data, not following data obtained with energy evaluation programs that consider much higher consumptions (we’ve acknowledged this, up to 60 % in some cases), and so this would result in much higher energy consumption reduction, but only theoretically, it wouldn’t be suitable for realistic scenarios.
Proposed scenarios and main features
Intervention on building stock |
Possible scenarios |
|||||
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
S4 |
S5 |
S6 |
|
Characteristics of the renewed building stock |
||||||
Building stock (during the period 1940-80) intervened |
10 % |
20 % |
30 % |
40 % |
50 % |
80 % |
Number of renewed buildings at 2021 |
69,254 |
138,518 |
207,782 |
277,048 |
346,308 |
554,105 |
Number or renewed buildings per year, |
6,925 |
13,852 |
20,778 |
27,705 |
34,631 |
55,411 |
Savings and reductions |
||||||
Energy savings after 10 years |
2 % |
5 % |
7 % |
10 % |
12 % |
20 % |
Energy reduction, 2012-2012 (MWh) |
247,871 |
495,969 |
744,016 |
992,143 |
1,240,259 |
1,984,494 |
Reduction in CO2 emissions 2012-2021 (T) |
54,804 |
109,660 |
164,504 |
219,367 |
274,227 |
438,782 |
Cost savings after 10 years (m €) |
62 |
124 |
186 |
248 |
310 |
495 |
Cost savings after 20 years (m €) |
143 |
286 |
429 |
571 |
714 |
1,143 |
Cost savings after 30 years (m €) |
224 |
448 |
671 |
895 |
1,119 |
1,790 |
Costs and investment grants |
||||||
Building budget (m €) |
201 |
403 |
604 |
806 |
1007 |
1612 |
Total investment budget (m €) |
244 |
488 |
731 |
975 |
1219 |
1950 |
Investment grant (50%) (m €) |
122 |
244 |
366 |
488 |
609 |
975 |
Private investment cost (m €) |
122 |
244 |
366 |
488 |
609 |
975 |
CO2 emissions return (m €) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
Number of jobs created at 2021 |
5,368 |
10,736 |
16,082 |
21,450 |
26,818 |
42,900 |
Last updated: 19.10.2015
Responsible for the content of this page: IVE - Instituto Valenciano de la Edificación (contact information) |